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ETA in Transport – How to Predict Delivery Times and Reduce Delays

The consignee wants to know when the goods will arrive, and the warehouse when to prepare the dock. Yet the estimated time of arrival (ETA) is often guesswork. We show where delays come from, what industry data says and how to calculate an ETA you can trust.

STARCONT editorial team · Updated: · 4 min read

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What ETA is

ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) is the predicted arrival time of a vehicle or shipment. In practice there are two kinds:

  • Static ETA – calculated once at planning: distance divided by average speed. It ignores what happens on the road.
  • Dynamic ETA – updated continuously from the vehicle's GPS position, traffic, driver breaks and stops.

The difference between ETA and the actual time of arrival (ATA) is worth measuring. It is the simplest indicator of whether planning works.

Why ETA drifts

1. Traffic

According to the TomTom Traffic Index, driving 10 km in Warsaw took an average of 24 min 23 s in 2025 – over a minute longer than a year earlier – and the average congestion level was 51.3%. An ETA calculated at a constant speed in a city will almost always be too optimistic.

2. Driver hours

EU rules (Regulation 561/2006) limit daily driving to 9 hours (10 hours twice a week), and after 4.5 hours of driving the driver must take a break of at least 45 minutes. Weekly (56 h) and fortnightly (90 h) limits apply, plus daily rest of at least 11 hours. From 1 July 2026 the same rules cover vehicles over 2.5 t in international transport and cabotage, which must be fitted with a second-generation tachograph. An ETA that ignores mandatory breaks can be off by many hours on a long route.

3. The loading dock

Delays do not always arise on the road. Germany's freight transport authority (BAG, now BALM) surveyed 778 drivers and 87 dock operators. About 60.8% of drivers and 59.5% of dock operators said that information on a vehicle's expected arrival time never or rarely reaches them. Only 7.2% of drivers always receive binding information on how long they will wait, and 46.7% feel that waiting times have grown in recent years.

4. Driver shortage

According to the IRU's 2025 report, Europe is short of about 502,000 truck drivers, or 13% of needed positions, and some 660,000 drivers are expected to retire by 2030. Fewer reserves mean every delay is harder to recover, so precise planning becomes a necessity.

What an accurate ETA brings

  • Dock and staff planning – the warehouse prepares a slot and team for the right time instead of keeping the driver in a queue.
  • Fewer phone calls – the dispatcher and customer see the position and expected time without calling the driver.
  • Faster response – when the ETA grows, you can move the time slot or warn the consignee before the deadline passes.
  • Evidence in disputes – the route history shows whether a delay happened on the road or at the dock.

How to build an ETA you can trust

  1. A position source independent of the driver's phone. A tracker installed in the vehicle or trailer reports even when the phone is off or the driver changes.
  2. Frequent reporting. A position every few minutes lets you spot a stop or detour before it becomes a delay of several hours.
  3. Driver breaks and traffic. Add mandatory breaks and rest periods to driving time, and use realistic speeds for the time of day.
  4. Geofences with automatic statuses. Entering the zone around the customer's warehouse means “arrived”, and the platform can send a notification without the driver's input.
  5. Unloading time in the plan. A door sensor shows when the cargo space was actually opened and closed, so you know how long dock handling takes.
  6. Measuring accuracy. Compare ETA with the actual arrival time for each route. Deviations show where to improve the plan.

How STARCONT monitoring helps

STARCONT devices and platforms provide the data an accurate ETA is built on:

  • Trackers for tractors and trailers – e.g. the wired TLW2-12B with a backup battery, the Helios M Pro with CAN bus reading, or the solar TLP2-SFB for trailers without permanent power.
  • Geofences and alarms – notifications on zone entry and exit and on unplanned stops.
  • Door sensors – the TSDT1-B and T-Sense record opening and closing of the cargo space.
  • The PLUSFLEET platform – fleet map and dashboard in one place, integrated with the Polish SENT-GEO system.

You can test the solution on your own routes with a starter kit. See also how to protect a trailer from cargo theft – the same trackers protect the load and feed the ETA.

Sources

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between ETA and ATA?

ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) is the predicted arrival time, ATA (Actual Time of Arrival) the real one. The gap between them shows how accurate planning is.

How do driver breaks affect ETA?

After 4.5 hours of driving the driver must take a break of at least 45 minutes, and daily driving is usually limited to 9 hours. An ETA that ignores these breaks and rest periods is underestimated on long routes.

Is the driver's phone enough to calculate ETA?

A phone may be switched off, changes with the driver and does not follow an unhooked trailer. A tracker installed in the vehicle or trailer reports its position independently of the driver.

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